BACKGROUND: The impact of short-term atherogenic burden and long-term cumulative lipid exposure on the risk of incident T2DM with CKD remains unclear. This study examines the longitudinal associations between the Atherogenic Index of Plasma (AIP) and Cumulative Atherogenic Index of Plasma (CumAIP) with the development of T2DM complicated by CKD in middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: A total of 5,779 participants from the CHARLS cohort were included. AIP and CumAIP were used to represent short-term and long-term lipid burdens, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression and restricted cubic spline models were applied to assess the dose-response relationships, adjusting for 11 conventional covariates. ROC curve analysis was conducted to evaluate predictive performance. An exploratory analysis further evaluated incident CKD among participants with T2DM at baseline (n = 494). RESULTS: Both AIP and CumAIP were significantly associated with incident T2DM with CKD, with the highest quartiles showing modest but statistically significant associations with the outcome (AIP-Q4: OR: 1.013; 95% CI: 1.004-1.022; p < 0.05; CumAIP-Q4: OR: 1.017; 95% CI: 1.008-1.026; p < 0.001). Linear dose-response associations were observed across logistic regression and RCS regression models. ROC analysis showed that CumAIP demenstrated better discrimination than AIP (AUC 0.683 versus 0.650). In an exploratory analysis of participants with T2DM at the baseline (n = 494), both indices showed suggestive associations with incident CKD (AIP-Q4: OR: 1.050; 95% CI: 1.009-1.145; p = 0.025; CumAIP-Q4: OR: 1.081; 95% CI: 1.015-1.152; p = 0.016). CONCLUSION: AIP and CumAIP is significantly associated with incident T2DM with CKD among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. CumAIP demonstrated superior predictive performance over single AIP measurement. These findings support the potential value of long-term lipid monitoring for identifying indivuduals at increased risk of T2DM with CKD. An exploratory analyses also suggested a similar associations with progression from T2DM to CKD; however, these findings require confirmation in larger cohorts.